Climatological Consulting Corporation

Hurricane Risk Assessment Examples:

Hurricane Tracks and El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Weather & Climate…
Reconstructing the Past,
Anticipating the Future

Hurricane tracks are influenced by large scale atmospheric circulation features, such as El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This circulation produces strong vertical shear over the south Atlantic during the El Niño phase, disrupting storms.

Tropical cyclones during El Niño events (positive ENSO index) tend to be less frequent in the Caribbean and shorter lived (red tracks).

Tropical cyclones during La Niña events (negative ENSO index) are more frequent in the Caribbean and longer lived (blue tracks).
Stacks Image 4121